December 16, 2023
With Democratic governor Andy Beshear on the ballot, the stakes were high for Kentuckians as they headed to the polls to vote in the most competitive gubernatorial election of 2023.
While the governor had won his first term in 2019 by defeating Republican Governor Matt Bevin, who managed to consistently find new and ingenious ways to alienate his constituents, this time was different, as Governor Beshear had a record and a challenger with strong Republican Party support.
Once returns came in, however, Governor Beshear managed to expand upon his 2019 margin of victory, winning a historic race as the bluegrass state chose independence and pragmatism over failed radicalism and far-right dogma. At the same time, questions now abound for the future of Kentucky Democrats in 2027 and beyond.
Background
Over the past four years, Governor Beshear managed to build a broad base of support even in traditionally conservative areas. For one, he was able to guide the state through the pandemic, providing a steady hand and ensuring that Kentuckians saw him as a compassionate and thoughtful individual with bipartisan credentials during his televised daily COVID updates. The increased name recognition turned him from a distant elected official into a leader many people referred to by his first name.
This study in proper disaster leadership carried over to multiple natural disasters in the Eastern Coalfields, a heavily Republican but ancestrally Democratic region where again and again the governor marshaled a whole-of-government approach to devastating tornadoes and floods. Governor Beshear became a soothing presence to Kentuckians whose livelihoods had been erased. He even got President Joe Biden to come and visit the affected communities, ensuring that the impoverished region would not go unnoticed, being on the ground and directly engaged with relief efforts.
Interestingly, the governor also benefited from his minimized role in legislative politics. The Republican-controlled General Assembly can override his vetoes with a simple majority vote. This unusual dynamic allowed him to avoid the culture wars that were never going to reach his desk while taking credit for larger trends such as unexpectedly high budget surpluses, and for signing bipartisan bills such as police reform and voting rights packages.
The issues
Governor Beshear’s record was so pristine that his Republican challenger, 37-year-old Attorney General Daniel Cameron, a protege of Republican Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, tried relentlessly to tie him to President Biden, with whom Governor Beshear rarely spoke. That was a mistake.
“The governor’s team beat back the perception of Beshear as Biden’s puppet because, well, he isn’t. He has a strong record and a body of accomplishments,” said Democratic State Representative Daniel Grossberg of Louisville.
This tactic backfired further as the governor pointed out that Attorney General Cameron was not addressing the needs of Kentuckians. In one memorable moment, the governor predicted that the attorney general would mention the president 16 times in the debate. After that, the attorney general mentioned President Biden four times in under two minutes. Already suffering from painfully low name recognition, Attorney General Cameron was made to look inauthentic and rehearsed – a direct contrast to Governor Beshear’s own genuine personal politics.
Even worse for the attorney general, when his policy positions were mentioned, it was not on his terms. Just before Labor Day, the governor and his allies put out powerful television advertisements blasting the attorney general’s extreme stance on reproductive freedom. The ad featured a woman named Hadley Duvall, who was raped by her stepfather at the age of 12, speaking directly to the camera as she told her story and criticized the attorney general, whose policy positions would have required that she has her stepfather’s baby.
While the pro-choice ad may have seemed risky in conservative Kentucky, just last year, voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would have clarified that the Kentucky state constitution does not grant the right to choose, demonstrating bipartisan support for choice.
“Trumpism, when defined by the issues (such as abortion bans without exception), is not popular in Kentucky,” said Representative Grossberg.
Thanks to the Labor Day timing, more people were watching television than usual and were able to view the ad, while the attorney general’s campaign could not orchestrate the response. The resulting surge in support for Governor Beshear never fully evaporated, and he credited Ms. Duvall in his victory speech.
The other set of ads that boosted the governor while dinging his opponent were far more controversial, seeking to prevent Attorney General Cameron, who is Black, from peeling Black voters away from the governor. A radio ad featured the attorney general’s abysmal record on police accountability, noting that he had failed to charge three officers implicated in the death of Black Louisville resident Breonna Taylor, who was shot in her own apartment, while a controversial no-knock warrant was being served. The ad branded the attorney general as “Uncle Daniel,” referencing the infamous, White-pleasing Uncle Tom.
A digital ad meanwhile, compared the attorney general to Stephen, an Uncle Tom-like character in the movie Django Unchained. Both ads, by Black Voters Matter Action PAC, used the famous phrase “all skin folk ain’t kinfolk,” and appear to have worked.
The results
In the end, Governor Beshear won reelection by a significant margin of five percentage points, or about 67,000 votes, and 29 counties, as opposed to his roughly 5,000 vote, 0.4 percentage point, 23 county win in 2019.
The results show that the governor was rewarded for his disaster relief responses in the Eastern Coalfields, where the governor vastly improved upon his 2019 margins. For example, in Perry County, which had voted for President Biden’s predecessor by 54 points, Governor Beshear won by 14 points, having lost by nine points in 2019.
Even more remarkably, in Letcher County, which voted Republican by 60 points in 2020 and against the governor by eight points in 2019, the governor won by four points. In Breathitt County, the governor won by 22 points, despite having carried it by less than two points in 2019 and it voting Republican by 52 points in 2020.
Even in the extreme west, where the governor won zero counties, he gained vote share by over five percentage points in Caldwell County and Hopkins County, which were also impacted by disasters.
Clearly, some politics are still local and good disaster management is remembered by the voters.
Disaster response was not the only factor, however. In fact, in 98 out of 120 counties, the governor improved upon his 2019 margins. Disaster-prone areas in eastern coalfields provided the largest swings in vote share for the governor, while urban areas swung the most in raw votes.
Naturally, it would not have been possible for him to win without running up huge vote totals in the urban areas and Governor Beshear did just that, winning Jefferson County, home to Louisville by 102,946 votes, beating his 98,821 vote margin in 2019 and Fayette County, home to Lexington, by 45,059 votes – significantly more than his 36,482 vote margin in 2019. These two counties are home to one in four registered Kentucky voters and by winning more raw votes in 2023 and a higher proportion of the overall vote (over 70% compared to 67% in 2019), Governor Beshear sealed his victory, even as overall voter turnout fell from around 42% in 2019 to 38% this year.
Similarly large shifts happened in the three counties, Boone, Campbell and Kenton, south of Cincinnati, a conservative region with one in 10 registered Kentucky voters. Governor Beshear actually won two out of those three counties while improving his margin in all three.
Clearly the governor’s ads worked, with abortion playing to those three counties south of Cincinnati as well as suburbs in Jefferson County and Fayette County, while the race-based ads worked in the cities of Louisville and Lexington in particular.
Something else helped: low enthusiasm among Republicans. In a low turnout election like this, the energized side often benefits and with a popular incumbent to protect, Democrats turned out at a rate that Attorney General Cameron was supposed to mobilize his supporters to match or even exceed, but instead fell far short of.
The win rekindled the usual presidential chatter (think young at, 45, charismatic, proven leader who can win even in deep red Kentucky). However, that would take a highly unlikely another Bill Clinton-style come-from-behind win, with a diverse Democratic base to whom the governor is almost completely unknown.
The future
However, two critical questions now take on increasing urgency for Kentucky Democrats: the question of Governor Beshear’s successor and how the party can win down ballot.
Although Governor Beshear had a great night with his ticket, including Democratic Lieutenant Governor Jacqueline Coleman, soon to be the first Democratic lieutenant governor of Kentucky to serve more than one term, the same cannot be said for any other Kentucky Democrat.
The next most competitive race for Attorney General saw the Democrat lose by 15 points, while other races saw even more lopsided margins. The only candidate to benefit from Governor Beshear’s win may have been a Republican: Secretary of State Michael Adams, who defied conventional Republicans and not only rejected the Big Lie but led a successful push to increase voting rights in the state.
Secretary Adams featured the governor in his ads, and won the most votes of any candidate statewide, including Governor Beshear, cruising to win over 775,000 votes in a 21.3 point margin of victory.
Governor Beshear’s inability to seek another term is a major quandary for Kentucky Democrats. The governor himself barely won his first term even after serving as attorney general and being the son of the popular former Governor Steve Beshear.
Now, with no other statewide elected officials, Kentucky Democrats who want to retain the governorship can look only to former US Representative John Yarmuth, current US Representative Morgan McGarvey, Lieutenant Governor Coleman, and a few close aides to the governor – in an ideal world.
With all other statewide offices and more ambitious Republicans in Congress and the General Assembly, Republicans have a clear advantage going into 2027.
Secretary Adams in particular looks to be gearing up for a run with a campaign victory speech that sounded more like a launch for another campaign. He especially, with his bipartisan credentials and proven ability to get through a Republican primary, would be kryptonite to any Democrat.
Representative Grossberg explained, “We need to continue to invest in resources for messaging and field every year, for every candidate – not just the governor in that quadrennial cycle. I used to have doubts about investing this much in the field, but I ate crow four years ago and I am all in on it now. He also had a VERY data-driven campaign. I am one of few candidates who does extensive polling and analytics. That needs to change. There is a science to campaigns, not just an art.”
Kentucky Democrats did not have a good night – Governor Beshear did. To remain viable, the party faces its most trying times yet.
Andy Beshear visits U.S. Army Cadet Command leadership. Kyle Crawford, U.S. Army Cadet Command Public Affairs Office / Public Domain By Charles Horowitz
By Charles Horowitz
Policy Reform Now 
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