May 2, 2023
Decades of party changes and demographic shifts have achieved their end result in Louisiana, where Republicans have achieved supermajority control of the legislature, allowing them to override Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards’s vetoes and eliminating the final hurdle on the path to complete Republican control of Louisiana’s state government.
Continuing shifts
The final breakthrough came on March 17, when the longest-serving Democrat in the Louisiana House of Representatives, Francis Thompson, first elected in 1975, announced he switched parties. A conservative, he made it clear that his voting record would not change, but the structural advantages that a supermajority brought would change the legislature.
Shortly thereafter, State Rep. Jeremy LaCombe of New Roads did the same on April 10, increasing this structural advantage. He too will enjoy the rewards of being in a supermajority.
“The big shifts started in the early 2000s and, apparently, dramatically increased since 2008. Since then, gerrymandering has added to the problem, creating much more racially segregated districts. And like the rest of the south, cultural/religious values have become more prominent in the state, which here trend far right,” said State Rep. Mandie Landry of New Orleans.
When asked what could be done to counteract the now-total Republican control of the state of Louisiana, Ms. Landry responded, “Money. More concentration on voting and organization of voters by both parties, which seems to be almost nothing.”
Indeed, Louisiana Democrats have been nearly eliminated from all positions of power within the past two decades. Though they still hold a plurality of registered voters, many of these voters are the latter-day equivalent of Dixiecrats and vote Republican far more often than they vote Democratic, if at all.
The state’s Democratic Party has struggled to recruit any top-tier candidates to run for statewide office and when November arrives, it appears exceedingly likely that Democrats will slip into total oblivion when they lose the governor’s mansion. It will be decades before they recover from that. Even longtime Democratic names such as the once-powerful Landrieu family look unlikely to regain the prominence they once had.
Even without holding the governor’s mansion, Louisiana Republicans, with near-total control of the state’s congressional delegation (gerrymandering has resulted in only one Louisiana Democrat in the U.S. House), near-total control of the Louisiana Supreme Court, total legislative control and near-total control of state-level statewide elected positions, hold more power today than nominal Republicans have held at any point in the state’s history.
Consequences
To deal with the specific issue of duly elected legislators switching parties, some have proposed the idea of holding special elections to confirm that voters endorse the party switch that their legislator engaged in. However, Ms. Landry noted, “I do not think that addresses anything substantive. The members who switch from conservative D to moderate R are unlikely to change many votes.”
As for the immediate future, Louisiana does not look like it will be experiencing an instant lurch to the right.
“I do not think there will be much change this year. Supermajority only helps with bills requiring a 2/3 vote versus a majority vote (which really mostly applies to constitutional amendments) and vetoes. I do not see the governor vetoing anything this year, but it is always possible,” said Ms. Landrie.
Even the governor is a relative social conservative, with anti-choice policies that have made him an outlier amongst Democrats. However, this social conservatism is what enabled Democrats to remain competitive in Louisiana even as other southern states fell to Republicans.
Once, the state was a bastion of (relatively) progressive Democrats, with the populist demagogue Huey Long skyrocketing to the top of national prominence with his programs to uplift the poor, including minorities, during the Great Depression.
During and after the civil rights era, Louisiana Democrats were more fiscally and socially liberal than the state’s Republicans, yes, but they were still more centrist than their counterparts in other states.
Indeed, one of the negotiations during the fight to pass the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, involved a $300 million Medicaid fix won by moderate Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu. That bargain, derisively referred to as the “Louisiana Purchase,” caused a national firestorm, but it reflected Louisiana Democrats’ unique, effective method of policymaking. Ms. Landrieu, last re-elected in 2008 before losing her seat in 2014, was the last Democrat to serve as a senator from Louisiana.
Once politics became nationalized, however, Democrats were unable to respond coherently, creating an environment where Republicans were able to tie state Democrats to those nationally, even though the two were vastly different. Conversely, this also led to many Democrats adopting nationally popular policies in much the same manner as Republicans have.
If Republicans did choose to fully exert their power, they could address “Possibly more culture war issues. This legislature has had serious problems with the extent of power of the governor, but since the next governor is likely to be a Republican, I think those efforts are likely dead for now. And anti-vax issues are over aside from a handful of members,” Ms. Landrie pointed out.
Though the decades-long steady stream of conservatism in Louisiana’s government will remain uninterrupted, the causes of this new supermajority just as alarming the result.
It appears that Democrats have failed to modernize their party and to maintain the faith of the people. Louisiana may be under total Republican control for decades to come, leading to further decreased living standards, a worsening economy and lower overall social welfare. To be clear: these changes will not happen instantly, but over time, they shall be noticed.
Louisiana’s voters have chosen the path their state will take. Now, they will bear responsibility for the results.
The Louisiana State Capitol. theMinsk / Public Domain
By Charles Horowitz
Policy Reform Now 
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